Where are mortgage rates right now, after the Fed meeting? As of Monday, November 2, 2026, mortgage rates have been range-bound in the days since the Federal Open Market Committee’s October 28 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.75% to 4.00%. The 10-year Treasury yield moved from 4.99% on Oct 27 (pre-meeting) to 4.98% on Oct 29 (post-meeting) — essentially flat. The Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed conventional average sits at 7.33% today, roughly in line with where it was before the Fed meeting. The real story this week is Friday’s October jobs report, which is likely to be the next meaningful catalyst for mortgage rates.

This post catches you up on what the Fed did last week, where mortgage rates sit today vs. before the meeting, and what Friday’s payroll report could do to rates for buyers and refinancers.

What the Fed Did on October 28, 2026

The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% — the same range it set after its 25 basis-point hike at the September 2026 meeting. The October hold was broadly expected by markets going in. The surprise was how the committee held: the vote was 10 to 2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase. Not a cut — a hike. That is a notably hawkish undercurrent on an otherwise steady decision.

The committee’s statement called inflation “elevated” and said additional information will help determine the appropriate policy stance to return inflation to 2%. No explicit forward guidance about the next meeting was given.

The practical read: after September’s rate increase, two officials wanted another hike now. That keeps a December hike on the table if inflation data stays hot, and tells markets the committee is not pivoting toward cuts anytime soon.

Where Mortgage Rates Sit Today vs. Before the Meeting

The headline: a nearly flat 10-year Treasury and nearly flat mortgage rates around a Fed decision that was slightly hawkish. Markets digested the hawkish tilt but did not dramatically re-price the rate path.

Why Fed Decisions Do Not Translate 1-to-1 to Mortgage Rates

This is a point worth revisiting whenever the Fed meets. The federal funds rate is a short-term rate that banks use to lend to each other overnight. Mortgage rates are tied primarily to mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which trade based on the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread.

The relationship looks like this:

10-year Treasury yield + MBS spread + lender margin = mortgage rate.

When the Fed moves (or holds), the signal travels through the bond market first. Traders re-price the 10-year based on their new expectation of where short-term rates will be over the next 10 years. If the Fed is more hawkish than expected, the 10-year typically rises. If more dovish than expected, it typically falls. Mortgage rates follow with a lag.

Last week’s decision was received as mildly hawkish, which could have pushed Treasuries higher. Instead, they stayed flat — which suggests markets had already partly priced in the hold with dissents. Mortgage rates stayed flat with them. For more on this mechanism, see our prior piece on why mortgage rates can diverge from Treasury moves.

Friday, November 6: October Jobs Report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October Employment Situation report (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings) at 8:30 AM Eastern on Friday, November 6, 2026. This is likely to be the biggest data point for mortgage rates this week.

Also this week: Tuesday’s midterm elections and the September JOLTS report (10:00 AM ET Tuesday), and Thursday’s Q3 productivity and costs release. None of these typically moves mortgage rates as much as the jobs report, but they can shape intraday Treasury trading.

Last month’s print, for context

September payrolls came in at +29,000 jobs, far below the pre-release consensus near +84,000 to +90,000. Combined revisions to July and August subtracted another 60,000 jobs from the prior count. Unemployment ticked to 4.2%. That was a weak report. The Fed’s September hike and last week’s hawkish tilt both pushed back against any “cuts are coming” expectation that had been building in some corners of the market.

Three scenarios for Friday

Here is how markets typically react to each outcome. These are historical patterns, not predictions.

• Strong report (payrolls meaningfully above 100K, unemployment falling, hourly earnings running hot): rates typically rise. The case for another Fed hike strengthens, Treasuries sell off, mortgage rates follow.
• In-line report (payrolls in the 50K-100K range, unemployment steady): rates typically stay range-bound. Not enough new information to move the dial.
• Weak report (payrolls below 50K, unemployment rising, hourly earnings decelerating): rates typically fall. A soft labor market would ease pressure on the Fed to keep hiking, Treasuries rally, mortgage rates follow.

Given September’s weak print and the hawkish FOMC dissents, Friday’s report has above-average potential to move rates in either direction. Watch for revisions to prior months too — the September report revised down by 60K combined for July and August, and markets react to the revised totals, not just the headline number.

What Buyers Should Do This Week

If you are under contract or close to writing an offer, the question is lock vs. float.

• Closing in the next 30 days? Locking before Friday’s jobs report is a defensive play. If the report comes in strong, rates could move up before you can react. Some lenders offer a float-down option if rates improve after you lock, usually for a fee and only if you select it at lock — ask us whether your lender offers one.
• Closing in 30-60 days? This is where the calendar matters. The December FOMC meeting is Dec 8-9. Letting rates settle after Friday’s report before locking is reasonable if you can accept the volatility.
• Shopping with a pre-approval but no contract yet? No lock decision to make yet. Keep your pre-approval current and focus on finding the right house.

Any lock conversation should include your rate, your APR, your points, and your lock expiration date (typically 30, 45, or 60 days). Call us at (877) 870-0007 and we will walk through the math for your specific scenario.

What Refinancers Should Watch

For refinancers, the question is break-even. A 1-point rate drop on a $500,000 balance saves roughly $300-$330 per month in principal and interest. If your closing costs are $5,000, the break-even is about 17 months. If you plan to stay in the home past the break-even and the rate improvement is big enough, refinancing can pencil out even in a range-bound rate environment.

Run your scenario through our refinance calculator to see your break-even in minutes. For borrowers whose current rate is above 7.5% from 2023 originations, there may already be room to refinance — even without a big rate rally — depending on your file.

Representative loan example

What to Do Next

1. Check live rates for your file. OnPoint’s posted rates assume a strong file and 2 discount points; your rate depends on your scenario. See today’s posted rates and call us for a scenario-specific quote.
2. If you are a shopper: pull your mortgage FICO (how credit score drives your rate), check your DTI (DTI explained), and know your cash picture (down payment, closing costs, reserves) before Friday’s report, so you can act fast if rates move.
3. Compare lenders in the same 14-day window to avoid credit-score hits (how shopping multiple lenders works). Use our Compare Mortgage Offers page for side-by-side math.

Last week’s recap: Why mortgage rates rose despite a weak jobs report — the Treasury-MBS divergence framework

Frequently Asked Questions

Where are mortgage rates right now (November 2, 2026)?

As of Monday, November 2, 2026, the Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed conventional average sits at 7.33%, FHA at 6.98%, VA at 6.99%, and the MND Jumbo average at 7.60%. OnPoint’s posted rate for a strong file (740 FICO, 70% LTV, 2 points) is 6.375% / 6.60% APR for conventional. Rates have been range-bound since the Oct 28 FOMC meeting.

What did the Fed do at the October 28, 2026 meeting?

The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 10-2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 0.25 percentage-point hike. The committee called inflation “elevated” and said more data is needed to determine the appropriate policy stance.

Why did mortgage rates not drop after the Fed meeting?

The Fed held rates in October after a 25 bp hike in September. Also, mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield plus the MBS spread, not directly to the federal funds rate. The 10-year Treasury barely moved around the October meeting (4.99% on Oct 27 to 4.98% on Oct 29), so mortgage rates also stayed flat.

When is the October 2026 jobs report?

Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings for October. Last month’s September print was +29,000 (far below the roughly +84,000 to +90,000 consensus) with 4.2% unemployment.

Should I lock my mortgage rate before Friday’s jobs report?

If you are closing within the next 30 days, locking before the report is a defensive play. A strong report could push rates higher before you can react. Some lenders offer a float-down option if rates improve after you lock, usually for a fee and only if you select it at lock. If you are closing in 30-60 days, the calendar between now and the December FOMC meeting (Dec 8-9) matters more. We walk through the math for each scenario.

Is now a good time to refinance?

Depends on your current rate. If you locked at 7.5% or higher in 2023 originations, there may already be room to refinance into a lower rate today. Run your scenario through our refinance calculator to see your break-even. If your break-even is less than how long you plan to stay in the home, refinancing can pencil out even in a range-bound rate environment.