Should you wait to buy a home until mortgage rates drop? After the Fed hiked 25 bp Sept 16, dot plot signals no cuts through 2027. Three real costs of waiting: home price appreciation, rent paid with zero equity, and rate-timing lottery. Date the rate, marry the house.
Fed hiked 25 bp Sept 16 to 3.75-4.00% in unanimous 12-0 vote, opposite of the 80% cut probability bond markets priced. Dot plot signals no cuts through 2027. Mortgage rates likely jump 30-75 bp in 48-72 hours. What to do with existing locks, floats, and shopping quotes.
Fed dot plot updates Wed Sept 16 with the FOMC decision. 19 Fed policymakers plot federal funds rate projections for 2026, 2027, 2028, longer-run. Median dot moves mortgage rates 15-40 bp in 24-72 hrs. Watch the 2027 median for hawkish or dovish surprise.
The 8-point mortgage rate shopping checklist for September 2026: Loan Estimate, note rate, APR, discount points, lender fees, credits, third-party costs, lock terms. CFPB says shopping 5 lenders saves ~$3,000. Same-day quote discipline. Red flags to watch for.
Fed decides Wed Sept 16 at 11am PT with Chair Warsh press conference at 11:30am. Bond futures priced ~80% probability of 25 bp cut. Three-scenario framework, ceiling-setting math, float-down option, 48-hour checklist. Do not try to time the bottom.
August 2026 CPI came in at +0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY headline; core at +0.3% MoM / +2.4% YoY. Shelter cooled to 3.0% YoY, energy spiked 2.1%. Five days before the FOMC, bond futures still price ~80% probability of a 25 bp cut. Powell forward guidance matters more than the decision itself.
Zero to Hero Refinance is OnPoint branded program with TWO options. Option 1: par rate + $0 OnPoint lender fees, borrower pays third-party costs. Option 2: slight rate premium + lender credit covers most closing costs. Choice depends on cash preservation vs long-term rate cost.
A no points refinance skips the discount-points buydown fee at close and funds at today market rate. Distinct from no-closing-cost refi and from OnPoint Zero to Hero (which eliminates lender fees). Full mechanics + 3-way comparison on a 400K refi.
The VA IRRRL is the fastest and cheapest refinance in the market for veterans. $2K-$5K closing cost vs $6K-$12K conventional. 10-25 day close vs 30-45 conventional. No appraisal, no income docs, no DTI recalculation. Full mechanics, eligibility, worked scenario on a $400K VA loan.
August 2026 jobs report just hit: 162K payrolls (vs 53K consensus, 3x upside surprise), 4.1% unemployment held. Hawkish print reduces September Fed cut probability from ~35% to ~25% and pushes mortgage rates up 5-15 bp over next 24-72 hours. Lock this weekend if you were floating.